Framework First
Stage — · FoundationintermediateMind, Brain & Human Performance

Critical Thinking & Mental Models — Think Like a Strategist

Upgrade your thinking with the mental models used by the world's best decision-makers. First principles, inversion, and probabilistic thinking applied daily.

3 hours 6 modules

The framework

First Principles + Inversion + Second-Order Thinking + Bayesian Updating

This course builds a latticework of four complementary mental models: First Principles (decompose assumptions to rebuild from truth); Inversion (solve problems by thinking about what you want to avoid); Second-Order Thinking (consider the consequences of consequences); Bayesian Updating (change your beliefs proportionally to new evidence).

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How you'll learn

Text-first. Practice-heavy. No video lectures.

15-minute text lessons

Short, dense reading you can finish between meetings — not hour-long video lectures.

Hands-on exercises

Apply the framework to a realistic scenario, right in the module where you learned it.

Quizzes & assessments

Check your judgment, not just your memory — most questions are situational.

Certificate on completion

Finish a course and get a shareable certificate, automatically.

About this course

The most valuable skill in the AI era is knowing WHAT to think about. This course teaches the mental models used by the world's best decision-makers — from Elon Musk's first-principles thinking to Charlie Munger's latticework of models.

The project: Strategic Decision Analysis

Apply all four mental models to a provided strategic decision (whether a startup should pivot or persist). Write a structured analysis using each model as a lens, then synthesise a recommendation that accounts for second-order effects.

  1. 1

    Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions

    Cognitive biases and the limits of intuition.

    25 min· Knowledge check· 📚 1 resource
    Free preview
  2. 2

    First Principles Thinking

    Decompose assumptions and rebuild from fundamental truths.

    25 min· Knowledge check
  3. 3

    Inversion — Solve Problems Backwards

    Think about what you want to avoid, not just what you want.

    20 min· Knowledge check· 📚 1 resource
  4. 4

    Second-Order Thinking

    Consider the consequences of consequences.

    20 min· Knowledge check· 📚 1 resource
  5. 5

    Bayesian Updating — Changing Your Mind with Evidence

    Update beliefs proportionally to new evidence.

    25 min· Knowledge check
  6. 6

    Capstone: Strategic Decision Analysis

    Apply all four mental models to a startup pivot decision.

    15 min· Knowledge check· 📚 1 resource